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Analysis of BBCM prices The graphs below show the average price of each of the Baltic countries in both aFRR (UP and DOWN) and mFRR (UP and DOWN) capacity market segments. Both downward aFRR and mFRR have seen a steady decline in average prices over the past year as for the aFRR segment the average price stayed below 50€/MWh since September 2025 and for mFRR segment it has stayed below 50€/MWh since May 2025. The upward aFRR and mFRR capacity market segments have seen more volatile prices, as for the upward prices for aFRR market segment were decreasing over the course of the second half of 2025, however, have seen a slight increase again in January 2026. The upward prices of mFRR capacity reserves have been relatively low since October 2025 and remarkably low at certain months in 2025 (June, November, December). Estonian monthly BBCM prices Reserve_type Month Avg_Price 1 Downward aFRR reserve 2025-02-01 00:00:00 2.48 2 Downward aFRR reserve 2025-03-01 00:00:00 0 3 Downward aFRR reserve 2025-04-01 00:00:00 195. 4 Downward aFRR reserve 2025-05-01 00:00:00 357. 5 Downward aFRR reserve 2025-06-01 00:00:00 14.1 6 Downward aFRR reserve 2025-07-01 00:00:00 190. 7 Downward aFRR reserve 2025-08-01 00:00:00 63.3 8 Downward aFRR reserve 2025-09-01 00:00:00 30.2 9 Downward aFRR reserve 2025-10-01 00:00:00 16.1 10 Downward aFRR reserve 2025-11-01 00:00:00 5.69 11 Downward aFRR reserve 2025-12-01 00:00:00 5.72 12 Downward aFRR reserve 2026-01-01 00:00:00 15.6 1 Downward mFRR reserve 2025-02-01 00:00:00 20.2 2 Downward mFRR reserve 2025-03-01 00:00:00 104. 3 Downward mFRR reserve 2025-04-01 00:00:00 436. 4 Downward mFRR reserve 2025-05-01 00:00:00 15.5 5 Downward mFRR reserve 2025-06-01 00:00:00 16.0 6 Downward mFRR reserve 2025-07-01 00:00:00 15.2 7 Downward mFRR reserve 2025-08-01 00:00:00 12.5 8 Downward mFRR reserve 2025-09-01 00:00:00 17.2 9 Downward mFRR reserve 2025-10-01 00:00:00 29.6 10 Downward mFRR reserve 2025-11-01 00:00:00 15.1 11 Downward mFRR reserve 2025-12-01 00:00:00 13.8 12 Downward mFRR reserve 2026-01-01 00:00:00 17.8 1 Upward aFRR reserve 2025-02-01 00:00:00 6.64 2 Upward aFRR reserve 2025-03-01 00:00:00 0 3 Upward aFRR reserve 2025-04-01 00:00:00 77.0 4 Upward aFRR reserve 2025-05-01 00:00:00 61.7 5 Upward aFRR reserve 2025-06-01 00:00:00 10.7 6 Upward aFRR reserve 2025-07-01 00:00:00 282. 7 Upward aFRR reserve 2025-08-01 00:00:00 81.2 8 Upward aFRR reserve 2025-09-01 00:00:00 45.0 9 Upward aFRR reserve 2025-10-01 00:00:00 23.1 10 Upward aFRR reserve 2025-11-01 00:00:00 0.0434 11 Upward aFRR reserve 2025-12-01 00:00:00 2.44 12 Upward aFRR reserve 2026-01-01 00:00:00 37.7 1 Upward mFRR reserve 2025-02-01 00:00:00 14.4 2 Upward mFRR reserve 2025-03-01 00:00:00 70.6 3 Upward mFRR reserve 2025-04-01 00:00:00 170. 4 Upward mFRR reserve 2025-05-01 00:00:00 17.8 5 Upward mFRR reserve 2025-06-01 00:00:00 9.16 6 Upward mFRR reserve 2025-07-01 00:00:00 60.6 7 Upward mFRR reserve 2025-08-01 00:00:00 32.2 8 Upward mFRR reserve 2025-09-01 00:00:00 57.7 9 Upward mFRR reserve 2025-10-01 00:00:00 26.3 10 Upward mFRR reserve 2025-11-01 00:00:00 7.60 11 Upward mFRR reserve 2025-12-01 00:00:00 12.7 12 Upward mFRR reserve 2026-01-01 00:00:00 22.1 Latvian monthly BBCM prices Reserve_type Month Avg_Price 1 Downward aFRR reserve 2025-02-01 00:00:00 0 2 Downward aFRR reserve 2025-03-01 00:00:00 0 3 Downward aFRR reserve 2025-04-01 00:00:00 137. 4 Downward aFRR reserve 2025-05-01 00:00:00 357. 5 Downward aFRR reserve 2025-06-01 00:00:00 9.60 6 Downward aFRR reserve 2025-07-01 00:00:00 183. 7 Downward aFRR reserve 2025-08-01 00:00:00 42.0 8 Downward aFRR reserve 2025-09-01 00:00:00 30.2 9 Downward aFRR reserve 2025-10-01 00:00:00 13.3 10 Downward aFRR reserve 2025-11-01 00:00:00 3.18 11 Downward aFRR reserve 2025-12-01 00:00:00 3.46 12 Downward aFRR reserve 2026-01-01 00:00:00 15.6 1 Downward mFRR reserve 2025-02-01 00:00:00 20.0 2 Downward mFRR reserve 2025-03-01 00:00:00 70.6 3 Downward mFRR reserve 2025-04-01 00:00:00 29.9 4 Downward mFRR reserve 2025-05-01 00:00:00 15.5 5 Downward mFRR reserve 2025-06-01 00:00:00 13.8 6 Downward mFRR reserve 2025-07-01 00:00:00 10.2 7 Downward mFRR reserve 2025-08-01 00:00:00 9.65 8 Downward mFRR reserve 2025-09-01 00:00:00 17.2 9 Downward mFRR reserve 2025-10-01 00:00:00 27.0 10 Downward mFRR reserve 2025-11-01 00:00:00 12.2 11 Downward mFRR reserve 2025-12-01 00:00:00 12.2 12 Downward mFRR reserve 2026-01-01 00:00:00 17.8 1 Upward aFRR reserve 2025-02-01 00:00:00 0 2 Upward aFRR reserve 2025-03-01 00:00:00 0 3 Upward aFRR reserve 2025-04-01 00:00:00 76.9 4 Upward aFRR reserve 2025-05-01 00:00:00 61.7 5 Upward aFRR reserve 2025-06-01 00:00:00 8.84 6 Upward aFRR reserve 2025-07-01 00:00:00 282. 7 Upward aFRR reserve 2025-08-01 00:00:00 96.7 8 Upward aFRR reserve 2025-09-01 00:00:00 94.9 9 Upward aFRR reserve 2025-10-01 00:00:00 56.7 10 Upward aFRR reserve 2025-11-01 00:00:00 2.13 11 Upward aFRR reserve 2025-12-01 00:00:00 5.00 12 Upward aFRR reserve 2026-01-01 00:00:00 52.4 1 Upward mFRR reserve 2025-02-01 00:00:00 14.4 2 Upward mFRR reserve 2025-03-01 00:00:00 70.8 3 Upward mFRR reserve 2025-04-01 00:00:00 151. 4 Upward mFRR reserve 2025-05-01 00:00:00 16.8 5 Upward mFRR reserve 2025-06-01 00:00:00 7.32 6 Upward mFRR reserve 2025-07-01 00:00:00 12.6 7 Upward mFRR reserve 2025-08-01 00:00:00 29.3 8 Upward mFRR reserve 2025-09-01 00:00:00 90.9 9 Upward mFRR reserve 2025-10-01 00:00:00 36.1 10 Upward mFRR reserve 2025-11-01 00:00:00 12.9 11 Upward mFRR reserve 2025-12-01 00:00:00 17.9 12 Upward mFRR reserve 2026-01-01 00:00:00 22.6 Lithuanian monthly BBCM prices Reserve_type Month Avg_Price 1 Downward aFRR reserve 2025-02-01 00:00:00 0 2 Downward aFRR reserve 2025-03-01 00:00:00 0 3 Downward aFRR reserve 2025-04-01 00:00:00 137. 4 Downward aFRR reserve 2025-05-01 00:00:00 357. 5 Downward aFRR reserve 2025-06-01 00:00:00 9.54 6 Downward aFRR reserve 2025-07-01 00:00:00 183. 7 Downward aFRR reserve 2025-08-01 00:00:00 42.0 8 Downward aFRR reserve 2025-09-01 00:00:00 30.2 9 Downward aFRR reserve 2025-10-01 00:00:00 13.3 10 Downward aFRR reserve 2025-11-01 00:00:00 3.18 11 Downward aFRR reserve 2025-12-01 00:00:00 3.46 12 Downward aFRR reserve 2026-01-01 00:00:00 15.6 1 Downward mFRR reserve 2025-02-01 00:00:00 19.3 2 Downward mFRR reserve 2025-03-01 00:00:00 67.4 3 Downward mFRR reserve 2025-04-01 00:00:00 29.9 4 Downward mFRR reserve 2025-05-01 00:00:00 15.5 5 Downward mFRR reserve 2025-06-01 00:00:00 10.9 6 Downward mFRR reserve 2025-07-01 00:00:00 10.4 7 Downward mFRR reserve 2025-08-01 00:00:00 9.65 8 Downward mFRR reserve 2025-09-01 00:00:00 17.2 9 Downward mFRR reserve 2025-10-01 00:00:00 27.0 10 Downward mFRR reserve 2025-11-01 00:00:00 12.2 11 Downward mFRR reserve 2025-12-01 00:00:00 12.2 12 Downward mFRR reserve 2026-01-01 00:00:00 17.8 1 Upward aFRR reserve 2025-02-01 00:00:00 0 2 Upward aFRR reserve 2025-03-01 00:00:00 0 3 Upward aFRR reserve 2025-04-01 00:00:00 76.9 4 Upward aFRR reserve 2025-05-01 00:00:00 61.7 5 Upward aFRR reserve 2025-06-01 00:00:00 8.84 6 Upward aFRR reserve 2025-07-01 00:00:00 282. 7 Upward aFRR reserve 2025-08-01 00:00:00 95.0 8 Upward aFRR reserve 2025-09-01 00:00:00 92.6 9 Upward aFRR reserve 2025-10-01 00:00:00 56.7 10 Upward aFRR reserve 2025-11-01 00:00:00 2.13 11 Upward aFRR reserve 2025-12-01 00:00:00 5.00 12 Upward aFRR reserve 2026-01-01 00:00:00 51.6 1 Upward mFRR reserve 2025-02-01 00:00:00 14.4 2 Upward mFRR reserve 2025-03-01 00:00:00 70.6 3 Upward mFRR reserve 2025-04-01 00:00:00 56.3 4 Upward mFRR reserve 2025-05-01 00:00:00 16.5 5 Upward mFRR reserve 2025-06-01 00:00:00 7.32 6 Upward mFRR reserve 2025-07-01 00:00:00 12.6 7 Upward mFRR reserve 2025-08-01 00:00:00 20.0 8 Upward mFRR reserve 2025-09-01 00:00:00 90.8 9 Upward mFRR reserve 2025-10-01 00:00:00 36.1 10 Upward mFRR reserve 2025-11-01 00:00:00 12.9 11 Upward mFRR reserve 2025-12-01 00:00:00 17.9 12 Upward mFRR reserve 2026-01-01 00:00:00 22.0 The average price for the whole year per capacity market segment and country is shown in the graph and table below: Country Reserve_type Year Yearly_Avg_Price 1 Estonia Downward aFRR reserve 2025 50.9 2 Estonia Downward mFRR reserve 2025 43.4 3 Estonia Upward aFRR reserve 2025 35.6 4 Estonia Upward mFRR reserve 2025 31.0 5 Latvia Downward aFRR reserve 2025 44.7 6 Latvia Downward mFRR reserve 2025 19.7 7 Latvia Upward aFRR reserve 2025 47.1 8 Latvia Upward mFRR reserve 2025 33.1 9 Lithuania Downward aFRR reserve 2025 44.7 10 Lithuania Downward mFRR reserve 2025 19.3 11 Lithuania Upward aFRR reserve 2025 46.9 12 Lithuania Upward mFRR reserve 2025 27.9 The yearly average across all reserves was highest in Estonia with 40.1€/MWh, second in Latvia with 35.8€/MWh, and third in Lithuania with 34.4€/MWh. Also, when looking at the actual set prices throughout the year for capacity reserves (graph only showing Estonia), then the prices are shown to have a lot more volatility – multiple cases of prices rising above 1000€/MWh. Majority of the spikes were seen between March and May 2025, however, the aFRR prices have started to rise again in the beginning of 2026. This is also shown in the barplot showcasing averages, with the aFRR UP prices having a significant rise in February 2026 compared to previous months. mFRR reserves have been constantly low since November 2025.  ASUTUSESISESEKS KASUTAMISEKS Märge tehtud: 20.04.2026 Kehtiv kuni: 20.04.2031 Alus: AvTS § 35 lg 1 p 17 Teabevaldaja: Konkurentsiamet Kalle Kilk Teie: 31.10.2025 Elering AS Kadaka tee 42 Meie: 20.04.2026 nr 7-11/25-0268-438-2 12915, Tallinn Kiri edastatud digitaalselt aadressil: [email protected] Analüüs põhivõrguettevõtja varade arvestamise kohta Balti ühise võimsusturu nõudluse katmisel Austatud Kalle Kilk Elering AS on koos teiste Balti põhivõrguettevõtjatega 31.10.2025 esitanud asjaomastele Balti reguleerivatele asutustele aruande Balti ühise võimsusturu toimimise kohta. Konkurentsiamet tänab esitatud andmete ja põhjaliku ülevaate eest. Aruandes esitatud analüüsi kohaselt on põhivõrguettevõtja omandusse kuuluvate varade mahtude arvesse võtmine nõudluse katmisel olnud Balti ühise võimsusturu käivitamise faasis olulise tähtsusega tasakaalustamisvõimsuse hankimiseks tehtavate kulude kontrolli all hoidmisel ja varustuskindluse tagamisel. Konkurentsiamet võtab esitatud informatsiooni teadmiseks kui põhivõrguettevõtjate poolse hinnangu turu käivitusfaasile. Samas nähtub hilisemate turuandmete (lisa 1) põhjal, et 2025. aasta teises pooles on tasakaalustusvõimsuse turuhinnad Balti regioonis stabiliseerunud ning volatiilsus on vähenenud. Antud areng võib viidata asjaolule, et turu algusfaasile omane ressursside nappus võib olla leevenemas. Selles kontekstis juhime tähelepanu asjaolule, et kuigi põhivõrguettevõtjad on avaldanud strateegiad nende omandusse kuuluvate varade turult väljaviimiseks1, tuginevad need täna peamiselt staatilistele ajalistele eesmärkidele. Esmalt kordab Konkurentsiamet oma 23.04.2025 kirjas nr 7-12/25-0105-175-22 väljendatud seisukohta, et põhivõrguettevõtjatele kuuluvate üksuste kasutamist reguleerivate õigusaktide ja dokumentide järgi on põhivõrguettevõtjatele kuuluvate üksuste kasutamise maht Balti ühisel võimsusturul tasakaalustamisteenuste osutamisel jäetud põhivõrguettevõtjate otsustuspädevusse ning sealjuures ei ole sellisele mahule sätestatud ülempiiri. Konkurentsiamet ei anna käesoleva pöördumisega suuniseid ega hinnanguid konkreetsete mahtude kasutamise 1 Balti põhivõrguettevõtjate varade väljumisstrateegia: https://elering.ee/sites/default/files/public/Elektriturg/Reservide%20v%C3%B5imsusturg/Baltic%20TSO%20res ource%20exit%20strategy%202025.pdf 2 Kättesaadav: https://adr.rik.ee/ka/dokument/16971864 Tatari 39 / 10134 Tallinn / 667 2400 / [email protected] / Registrikood 70000303 õigustatuse kohta. Võttes arvesse turu edasist arengut ja läbipaistvuse suurendamist, peame asjakohaseks, et Elering AS analüüsiks võimalusi, kuidas siduda põhivõrguettevõtja omandusse kuuluvate varade kaasamine Balti ühise võimsusturu kontekstis tulevikus dünaamilisemalt turu tegeliku likviidsusega, turuosaliste poolt pakutavate ressursside kättesaadavusega ja varustuskindluse tagamise vajadusega. Lisaks palume analüüsis hinnata ka seda, millist mõju on avaldanud või avaldab Balti ühisel võimsusturul kujunevale hinnale Elering AS-i omandusse kuuluvate varade kaasamine, vaadeldes hinna tundlikkust astmeliselt erinevate potentsiaalsete kaasamismahtude lõikes. Rõhutame, et tegemist on ettepanekuga analüüsida täiendavaid meetmeid turu efektiivsuse ja läbipaistvuse tõstmiseks pikaajalises vaates. Käesolev kiri ei sea Elering AS-ile uusi regulatiivseid kohustusi ega muuda Konkurentsiameti seni väljendatud seisukohti põhivõrguettevõtja pädevuse osas kaasata Balti ühisel võimsusturul tema omandusse kuuluvaid varasid vastavalt kehtivale metoodikale ja regulatiivsele raamistikule. Tagamaks terviklikku ülevaadet põhivõrguettevõtja pikemaajalistest plaanidest ja nendega kaasnevatest potentsiaalsetest mõjudest seoses Kiisa avariireservelektrijaama kavandatava müügiga 2028. aastal, palume esitada ülevaade võõrandamisprotsessi edasistest tegevustest ja eeldatavast ajakavast. Ühtlasi palume selgitada, milline on jaama müügist laekuva tulu kavandatav sihtotstarve ja kuidas plaanib põhivõrguettevõtja seda tulu kasutada. Palume eeltoodud analüüs teostada ning esitada küsitud teave Konkurentsiametile hiljemalt 04.05.2026. Lugupidamisega (allkirjastatud digitaalselt) Marilin Tilkson teenistuse juht Lisa: 1. Analysis of BBCM prices Armin Ilisson 667 2437 [email protected] 2 (2)